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AMC


Model uses technical references to compare current stats with past stats to forecast next day performance.

*SMA: Simple Moving Average.

2021-01-11 - 2022-12-23

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  • 0.75% from 10 SMA

    Sample Size: 128

  • Upside:Downside

    47.7% 52.3%

  • -14.38% from 20 SMA

    Sample Size: 67

  • Upside:Downside

    40.3% 59.7%

  • -32.39% from 50 SMA

    Sample Size: 31

  • Upside:Downside

    41.9% 58.1%

  • -44.6% from 100 SMA

    Sample Size: 19

  • Upside:Downside

    42.1% 57.9%

  • -60.02% from 150 SMA

    Sample Size: 32

  • Upside:Downside

    46.9% 53.1%

  • -65.41% from 200 SMA

    Sample Size: 9

  • Upside:Downside

    22.2% 77.8%

  • -88.2% from 52 Week High

    Sample Size: 51

  • Upside:Downside

    45.1% 54.9%

  • 7.43% from 52 Week Low

    Sample Size: 18

  • Upside:Downside

    33.3% 66.7%




Probability Model:

Collection of next day performances from stats above.


3.48 - 3.67 3.67 - 3.86 3.86 - 4.05 4.05 - 4.24 4.24 - 4.43 4.43 - 4.62
3.58% 19.56% 31.96% 26.72% 9.37% 3.31%

Details

- Beyond the model: 5.51% to move lower than 3.48 or higher than 4.62.

- Expected percent range 0 - ∓4.68%.

- Standard deviation range is ∓4.68% at 59.0th percentile.

- Median %: ∓3.88% at 50th percentile.

- Low %: ∓0.11%.

- High %: ∓44.91%.

- Mean %: ∓5.2%.



Intraday Model:

Movement range in single day. From high to low of day.


1.3% - 1.96% 1.96% - 3.91% 3.91% - 7.83% 7.83% - 15.65% 15.65% - 23.48%
0.0% 2.75% 52.47% 39.84% 4.12%

Details

- Beyond the model: 0.82% to move lower than 1.3% or higher than 23.48%.

- Standard deviation range is 3.91% at 2.0th percentile.

- Median %: 7.5% at 50th percentile.

- Low %: 2.95%.

- High %: 30.95%.

- Mean %: 8.5%.