EVFM


Model uses technical references to compare current stats with past stats to forecast next day performance.

*SMA: Simple Moving Average.

2020-08-10 - 2022-08-10

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  • -39.24% from 10 SMA

    Sample Size: 95

  • Upside:Downside

    46.3% 53.7%

  • -43.53% from 20 SMA

    Sample Size: 126

  • Upside:Downside

    40.5% 59.5%

  • -33.33% from 50 SMA

    Sample Size: 212

  • Upside:Downside

    44.8% 55.2%

  • -74.87% from 100 SMA

    Sample Size: 130

  • Upside:Downside

    39.2% 60.8%

  • -85.92% from 150 SMA

    Sample Size: 131

  • Upside:Downside

    38.9% 61.1%

  • -89.31% from 200 SMA

    Sample Size: 67

  • Upside:Downside

    38.8% 61.2%

  • -96.72% from 52 Week High

    Sample Size: 251

  • Upside:Downside

    41.8% 58.2%

  • N/A from 52 Week Low

    Sample Size: 0

  • Upside:Downside

    No % No %





Probability Model:

Collection of next day performances from stats above.


0.36 - 0.4 0.4 - 0.44 0.44 - 0.48 0.48 - 0.52 0.52 - 0.56 0.56 - 0.6
0.98% 5.1% 52.6% 33.66% 4.42% 1.96%

Details

- Beyond the model: 1.28% to move lower than 0.36 or higher than 0.6.

- Expected percent range 0 - ∓8.04%.

- Standard deviation range is ∓8.04% at 86.0th percentile.

- Median %: ∓3.06% at 50th percentile.

- Low %: ∓0.13%.

- High %: ∓34.17%.

- Mean %: ∓4.84%.




Intraday Model:

Movement range in single day. From high to low of day.


1.66% - 2.49% 2.49% - 4.98% 4.98% - 9.97% 9.97% - 19.93% 19.93% - 29.9%
0.78% 25.2% 47.35% 22.75% 3.33%

Details

- Beyond the model: 0.59% to move lower than 1.66% or higher than 29.9%.

- Standard deviation range is 4.98% at 26.0th percentile.

- Median %: 6.98% at 50th percentile.

- Low %: 2.0%.

- High %: 47.32%.

- Mean %: 8.27%.