NILE


Model uses technical references to compare current stats with past stats to forecast next day performance.

*SMA: Simple Moving Average.

2020-06-29 - 2022-06-28

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  • -7.14% from 10 SMA

    Sample Size: 309

  • Upside:Downside

    46.0% 54.0%

  • -18.75% from 20 SMA

    Sample Size: 164

  • Upside:Downside

    45.1% 54.9%

  • -27.78% from 50 SMA

    Sample Size: 109

  • Upside:Downside

    45.0% 55.0%

  • -55.17% from 100 SMA

    Sample Size: 39

  • Upside:Downside

    43.6% 56.4%

  • -69.05% from 150 SMA

    Sample Size: 9

  • Upside:Downside

    33.3% 66.7%

  • -78.33% from 200 SMA

    Sample Size: 7

  • Upside:Downside

    28.6% 71.4%

  • -91.67% from 52 Week High

    Sample Size: 110

  • Upside:Downside

    40.0% 60.0%

  • 15.56% from 52 Week Low

    Sample Size: 14

  • Upside:Downside

    35.7% 64.3%





Probability Model:

Collection of next day performances from stats above.


0.22 - 0.23 0.23 - 0.25 0.25 - 0.26 0.26 - 0.27 0.27 - 0.29 0.29 - 0.3
3.77% 20.55% 35.37% 22.5% 11.31% 3.9%

Details

- Beyond the model: 2.6% to move lower than 0.22 or higher than 0.3.

- Expected percent range 0 - ∓5.0%.

- Standard deviation range is ∓5.0% at 58.0th percentile.

- Median %: ∓4.24% at 50th percentile.

- Low %: ∓0.11%.

- High %: ∓48.56%.

- Mean %: ∓5.1%.




Intraday Model:

Movement range in single day. From high to low of day.


1.5% - 2.26% 2.26% - 4.51% 4.51% - 9.03% 9.03% - 18.06% 18.06% - 27.09%
0.0% 9.22% 52.6% 34.29% 3.38%

Details

- Beyond the model: 0.52% to move lower than 1.5% or higher than 27.09%.

- Standard deviation range is 4.51% at 9.0th percentile.

- Median %: 8.07% at 50th percentile.

- Low %: 2.98%.

- High %: 44.66%.

- Mean %: 9.07%.