SPY


Model uses technical references to compare current stats with past stats to forecast next day performance.

*SMA: Simple Moving Average.

2020-05-18 - 2022-05-17

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  • 0.7% from 10 SMA

    Sample Size: 333

  • Upside:Downside

    56.2% 43.8%

  • -1.9% from 20 SMA

    Sample Size: 97

  • Upside:Downside

    52.6% 47.4%

  • -5.34% from 50 SMA

    Sample Size: 26

  • Upside:Downside

    53.8% 46.2%

  • -7.51% from 100 SMA

    Sample Size: 15

  • Upside:Downside

    60.0% 40.0%

  • -8.81% from 150 SMA

    Sample Size: 10

  • Upside:Downside

    70.0% 30.0%

  • -8.56% from 200 SMA

    Sample Size: 6

  • Upside:Downside

    83.3% 16.7%

  • -14.93% from 52 Week High

    Sample Size: 4

  • Upside:Downside

    50.0% 50.0%

  • 6.02% from 52 Week Low

    Sample Size: 9

  • Upside:Downside

    44.4% 55.6%





Probability Model:

Collection of next day performances from stats above.


388.52 - 395.13 395.13 - 401.71 401.71 - 408.32 408.32 - 414.93 414.93 - 421.51 421.51 - 428.12
1.18% 7.09% 36.61% 47.44% 7.48% 0.0%

Details

- Beyond the model: 0.2% to move lower than 388.52 or higher than 428.12.

- Expected percent range 0 - ∓1.62%.

- Standard deviation range is ∓1.62% at 84.0th percentile.

- Median %: ∓0.68% at 50th percentile.

- Low %: ∓0.11%.

- High %: ∓5.76%.

- Mean %: ∓0.91%.




Intraday Model:

Movement range in single day. From high to low of day.


0.27% - 0.41% 0.41% - 0.82% 0.82% - 1.63% 1.63% - 3.27% 3.27% - 4.9%
4.72% 24.17% 39.49% 27.9% 2.95%

Details

- Beyond the model: 0.79% to move lower than 0.27% or higher than 4.9%.

- Standard deviation range is 0.82% at 29.0th percentile.

- Median %: 1.13% at 50th percentile.

- Low %: 0.2%.

- High %: 4.46%.

- Mean %: 1.37%.