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SPY


Model uses technical references to compare current stats with past stats to forecast next day performance.

*SMA: Simple Moving Average.

2019-11-25 - 2021-11-26

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  • -1.92% from 10 SMA

    Sample Size: 71

  • Upside:Downside

    64.8% 35.2%

  • -1.5% from 20 SMA

    Sample Size: 64

  • Upside:Downside

    57.8% 42.2%

  • 1.71% from 50 SMA

    Sample Size: 140

  • Upside:Downside

    60.7% 39.3%

  • 2.74% from 100 SMA

    Sample Size: 52

  • Upside:Downside

    73.1% 26.9%

  • 4.81% from 150 SMA

    Sample Size: 38

  • Upside:Downside

    73.7% 26.3%

  • 7.33% from 200 SMA

    Sample Size: 41

  • Upside:Downside

    63.4% 36.6%

  • -3.08% from 52 Week High

    Sample Size: 48

  • Upside:Downside

    62.5% 37.5%

  • N/A from 52 Week Low

    Sample Size: 0

  • Upside:Downside

    No % No %




Probability Model:

Collection of next day performances from stats above.


436.39 - 443.92 443.92 - 451.44 451.44 - 458.97 458.97 - 466.5 466.5 - 474.02 474.02 - 481.55
1.52% 6.72% 27.11% 56.83% 7.38% 0.0%

Details

- Beyond the model: 0.43% to move lower than 436.39 or higher than 481.55.

- Expected percent range 0 - ∓1.64%.

- Standard deviation range is ∓1.64% at 84.0th percentile.

- Median %: ∓0.84% at 50th percentile.

- Low %: ∓0.12%.

- High %: ∓7.81%.

- Mean %: ∓0.97%.



Intraday Model:

Movement range in single day. From high to low of day.


0.29% - 0.44% 0.44% - 0.88% 0.88% - 1.76% 1.76% - 3.53% 3.53% - 5.29%
4.98% 23.81% 43.94% 22.73% 3.03%

Details

- Beyond the model: 1.52% to move lower than 0.29% or higher than 5.29%.

- Standard deviation range is 0.88% at 29.0th percentile.

- Median %: 1.19% at 50th percentile.

- Low %: 0.22%.

- High %: 7.05%.

- Mean %: 1.42%.